St. Petersburg’s real estate market is facing a pricing mismatch that standard metrics fail to capture, according to veteran agent Joshua Neitz. While official data shows home prices down five to six percent year-over-year, Neitz says these numbers obscure a deeper problem: sellers routinely list homes above market value, leading to artificial price reductions that distort both statistics and perceptions of market health.

Neitz, a realtor with NextHome Gulf Coast and longtime investor, says sellers routinely ignore pricing guidance. He describes a recent listing where his team recommended a realistic number, only for the sellers to insist on pricing it $25,000 higher at the last minute. “It’s not going to sell there,” he warned, but says homeowners often push back regardless.

Neitz says this pattern – listing above realistic market value, then gradually reducing the price – creates the illusion of a weakening market. These reductions, he argues, are not signs of declining property values but corrections for initial overpricing.

Low Mortgage Rates Remove Pressure to Price Realistically

A key factor behind this dynamic is the lack of urgency among sellers with low mortgage rates. “Most sellers don’t have to sell either. If you’re locked in at our interest rate at 2.5 or 3.1 or 3.8, your monthly payments are so low,” Neitz observes.

Because their monthly payments are so low, many sellers feel no urgency to price realistically and are willing to wait for a higher offer. Neitz says the problem is compounded by the fact that many agents don’t charge cancellation fees, allowing homeowners to test inflated prices with no real downside. Sellers often take a “try it and see” approach – if the home doesn’t move, they simply relist months later.

This strategy, according to Neitz, means buyers and sellers are often too far apart on price for deals to happen quickly. The resulting delays and repeated price cuts produce misleading data, making it difficult to assess the true state of the market.

How Overpricing Skews Market Data

Neitz argues that the wave of price reductions isn’t proof of a sharply declining market, but simply the fallout from homes being listed too high to begin with. He says it creates the illusion of falling prices when, in reality, sellers and buyers are so far apart that agents must cut inflated list prices down to true market value before a home will move.

For buyers, sellers, and analysts, this distinction matters. The market may appear weaker than it is, but this is largely a function of inefficient pricing rather than falling demand or widespread distress. Neitz describes the current environment as one of pricing inefficiency, not market collapse.

Neitz says that although the data points to a balanced market, buyers actually hold a slight advantage. With more homes sitting longer, he notes that sellers are increasingly making concessions – giving buyers more leverage than headline numbers suggest.

A Need for Better Pricing Discipline

Neitz and his team at NextHome Gulf Coast have responded by drawing on his experience as both an agent and investor. During the housing crisis, he managed dozens of bank-owned properties and built a rental portfolio through flips and renovations. This background gives him a practical understanding of renovation costs and timelines – knowledge he uses to negotiate more effectively and advise clients on realistic pricing.

Neitz says his years as an investor – renovating homes, estimating costs, and managing timelines – gave him a practical edge as an agent. That experience, he notes, now helps him negotiate more effectively because he understands exactly what repairs entail in terms of money, time, and labor.

Whether more agents will adopt this approach depends on how quickly the industry recognizes that overpricing at the listing stage creates more problems than it solves. It also hinges on whether sellers accept that their low mortgage rates do not guarantee higher sale prices.

For now, Neitz argues, the St. Petersburg market is not as weak as headline numbers imply – but it is less efficient, and less predictable, than most buyers and sellers realize. The disconnect between expectations and reality, he warns, will persist until pricing discipline returns to the listing process.