Photo courtesy of New Anglia University
George Hill, Anguilla, 13 October 2026— New Anglia University examines the continuing demand for physicians across the United States as healthcare workforce projections highlight the challenges of meeting the medical needs of a growing and aging population. Demographic changes, the increasing prevalence of chronic conditions, physician retirements, and disparities in healthcare access are contributing to concerns about whether the country will have sufficient medical professionals to meet future patient needs.
According to the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), the United States could face a shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036. More recent projections published by the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) in December 2025 estimate a potential shortage of approximately 141,160 full-time-equivalent physicians by 2038. Although these projections use different methodologies and timeframes, both indicate significant challenges in maintaining an adequate physician workforce.
The issue extends beyond the total number of doctors entering the profession. It also concerns the geographic distribution of physicians, the availability of specialists, the capacity of postgraduate medical training programs, and the ability of healthcare systems to respond to changing population needs. Understanding these factors is increasingly important for prospective medical students considering the long-term demands and opportunities associated with a career in medicine.
Why the United States Continues to Need More Physicians
The demand for physicians is influenced by several interconnected factors, including population growth, longer life expectancy, changing patterns of disease, and the increasing complexity of medical care. As more Americans live with chronic conditions, healthcare systems require physicians capable of providing ongoing treatment, coordinating care, and managing patients with multiple medical needs.
At the same time, the existing physician workforce is experiencing demographic changes of its own. A substantial proportion of practicing physicians are approaching retirement age, creating the possibility that healthcare systems will need to replace experienced doctors while simultaneously responding to increased patient demand. Changes in physicians' working hours and career patterns can also influence the amount of clinical care available.
These pressures are not distributed evenly across the country. Some communities have relatively strong access to primary care and specialist services, while others face longstanding difficulties recruiting and retaining physicians. Addressing future demand therefore requires both an adequate national supply of doctors and strategies that improve access to medical care in underserved areas.
Physician Workforce Projections Highlight the Scale of the Challenge
National physician workforce projections provide an important indication of how medical supply and demand may develop over time. The AAMC's 2024 report, The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections From 2021 to 2036, estimated a potential shortage of between 13,500 and 86,000 physicians by 2036, with population growth and aging identified as important drivers of future healthcare demand.
HRSA's December 2025 projections extend the outlook to 2038 and estimate a shortage of approximately 141,160 full-time-equivalent physicians. The projections examine the relationship between the expected supply of healthcare professionals and the level of care that populations may require, taking account of factors such as demographic changes, healthcare utilization, and workforce participation.
These estimates should be understood as projections rather than precise predictions. Future shortages will depend on developments in medical education, residency training, physician retirement, healthcare delivery, technology, and public policy. Nevertheless, the findings illustrate why physician workforce planning remains a significant issue for healthcare institutions, medical educators, and communities across the United States.
An Aging Population Is Increasing Healthcare Needs
Population aging is one of the most significant factors influencing future physician demand. Older adults are more likely to require regular medical assessments, long-term treatment, and coordinated care for multiple health conditions. As the proportion of older Americans increases, healthcare systems may experience greater demand for both primary care and specialist medical services.
The AAMC's 2024 workforce projections estimated that the U.S. population aged 65 and older would increase by approximately 34% between 2021 and 2036. This demographic shift has implications for the management of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, chronic respiratory conditions, neurological disorders, and other illnesses that become more common with age.
The resulting demand is not limited to hospital-based treatment. Older patients frequently require continuity of care, medication management, preventive services, rehabilitation, and coordination between different medical specialties. Preparing the future physician workforce therefore involves ensuring that medical graduates develop the broad clinical knowledge and patient-care skills needed to manage increasingly complex healthcare needs.
Physician Retirements May Intensify Workforce Pressures
The aging of the physician workforce represents another important challenge. As experienced physicians approach retirement, healthcare organizations must consider how to maintain clinical capacity while also responding to increasing demand from patients.
The AAMC has highlighted the substantial proportion of practicing physicians aged 55 and older, indicating that retirements could influence physician availability over the coming decade. Retirement patterns are difficult to predict precisely because some physicians continue practicing beyond traditional retirement age, while others reduce their clinical responsibilities or leave practice earlier.
These changes can have particular consequences in communities where medical services depend on a relatively small number of physicians. Replacing experienced doctors requires a sustained pipeline of medical students, residents, and newly qualified specialists, making long-term planning essential. Because medical education and postgraduate training take many years, decisions about training capacity today may influence the physician workforce available well into the future.
Primary Care Remains a Major Area of Physician Demand
Primary care is central to the functioning of the U.S. healthcare system. Family medicine physicians, general internists, pediatricians, and geriatricians provide preventive care, diagnose common conditions, manage chronic illnesses, and coordinate referrals to specialist services. Their work supports continuity of care and helps patients navigate increasingly complex healthcare needs.
HRSA's December 2025 workforce projections estimate a shortage of approximately 70,610 full-time-equivalent primary care physicians by 2038. This projected shortfall reflects concerns about the ability of healthcare systems to maintain sufficient access to routine medical care, particularly in communities already experiencing difficulties recruiting physicians.
Primary care also plays an important role in the early identification and management of chronic disease. Patients who receive regular medical attention may benefit from earlier diagnosis, ongoing monitoring, and more coordinated treatment. For medical students, exposure to Family Medicine, Internal Medicine, Pediatrics, and other primary care settings provides an essential understanding of the relationship between individual patient care and the wider healthcare system.
Demand for Physicians Extends Across Medical Specialties
Although primary care receives considerable attention in workforce discussions, physician shortages are not confined to general medical services. Demand for specialist care is also influenced by population aging, advances in medical treatment, and the increasing complexity of patient conditions.
HRSA's projections identify potential workforce shortfalls across a range of medical specialties, including Cardiology, Obstetrics and Gynecology, Anesthesiology, and Nephrology. Other specialties may experience different workforce pressures depending on regional demand, physician demographics, training capacity, and changing models of healthcare delivery.
The need for specialist physicians also reflects developments in medical science. Advances in diagnostics, surgical procedures, cancer treatment, and the management of chronic conditions can expand the range of services available to patients. However, these advances often require physicians with additional specialist training, emphasizing the importance of maintaining sufficient capacity throughout the medical education and postgraduate training pathway.
Rural and Underserved Communities Face Particular Challenges
Physician availability varies considerably between different parts of the United States. Large metropolitan areas may have extensive hospital networks, academic medical centers, and specialist services, while rural and underserved communities may experience limited access to primary care and specialist treatment.
Geographic disparities can affect patients' ability to obtain timely appointments, receive preventive care, and access appropriate treatment. Individuals living in areas with limited physician availability may need to travel substantial distances for specialist consultations or rely on healthcare facilities operating with constrained clinical resources.
HRSA's workforce projections indicate that physician shortages may be considerably more pronounced in nonmetropolitan communities than in metropolitan areas. Addressing these disparities requires attention not only to the total number of physicians trained but also to where they ultimately choose to practice. Initiatives involving rural medical education, community-based clinical training, residency opportunities, and physician recruitment may all contribute to improving access in underserved regions.
Medical Education Is Essential to Long-Term Workforce Planning
Preparing the next generation of physicians is a central component of addressing future healthcare workforce needs. Medical education provides the scientific foundations, clinical knowledge, practical skills, and professional competencies required for doctors to progress into postgraduate training and eventually independent practice.
However, the pathway from entering medical school to becoming a fully trained physician is lengthy. Students must complete an appropriate medical degree, satisfy relevant examination and certification requirements, and undertake postgraduate clinical training. The duration and structure of this process vary according to the specialty and the requirements of the relevant medical licensing authorities.
Increasing the number of medical school places may help expand the future physician pipeline, but it does not automatically translate into an equivalent increase in independently practicing doctors. Medical education must be supported by sufficient clinical training opportunities, qualified supervisors, postgraduate training capacity, and appropriate educational standards. Workforce planning therefore requires coordination across multiple stages of physician development.
Residency Training Is a Critical Part of the Physician Workforce Pipeline
In the United States, graduate medical education is an essential stage in preparing medical graduates for clinical practice. Residency programs provide supervised specialty training, allowing physicians to develop the clinical competencies, professional judgment, and experience required for progressively greater responsibility in patient care.
The availability of residency positions is therefore a significant factor in the development of the physician workforce. Even where demand for doctors is increasing, medical graduates must satisfy the eligibility requirements of individual programs and compete for available training opportunities. Residency positions vary according to specialty, institution, geographic location, and applicant qualifications.
The National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) coordinates the Main Residency Match, through which applicants and participating residency programs are matched using submitted rank order lists. For prospective medical students, understanding this process is important because projected physician shortages do not guarantee residency placement. The ability to progress into postgraduate training depends on meeting the relevant requirements and successfully obtaining a position within an appropriate program.
International Medical Graduates Contribute to the U.S. Healthcare Workforce
The U.S. physician workforce includes doctors who completed their medical education outside the United States. International Medical Graduates (IMGs) contribute to patient care across a range of specialties and healthcare settings, reflecting the international nature of medical education and physician mobility.
International medical graduates follow specific pathways when seeking postgraduate training and medical licensure in the United States. Graduates of international medical schools generally need to meet the applicable Educational Commission for Foreign Medical Graduates (ECFMG) Certification requirements to enter eligible U.S. graduate medical education programs. They must also satisfy relevant examination, residency, and licensing requirements.
The contribution of international medical graduates should therefore be considered within the wider context of physician workforce planning. While international medical education provides an additional route through which students may prepare for medical careers, graduation from an international medical school does not automatically establish eligibility for residency or licensure. Prospective students should carefully examine the requirements associated with their intended career destination before selecting a medical program.
Clinical Training Prepares Students for the Responsibilities of Patient Care
Physician workforce development involves more than increasing the number of medical graduates. It also requires ensuring that future doctors receive appropriate clinical preparation and develop the competencies necessary to provide safe and effective patient care.
Clinical rotations allow medical students to apply scientific knowledge in real healthcare environments under the supervision of experienced physicians. Through rotations in major specialties such as Internal Medicine, Surgery, Pediatrics, Obstetrics and Gynecology, Psychiatry, and Family Medicine, students gain exposure to different patient populations, clinical conditions, and approaches to treatment.
These experiences help students develop clinical reasoning, patient communication, physical examination skills, and an understanding of multidisciplinary healthcare. They also provide opportunities to explore different medical specialties and consider future career pathways. For students interested in postgraduate training in the United States, familiarity with the structure and expectations of U.S. healthcare may be an additional consideration when planning their clinical education.
Technology Is Changing the Future of Healthcare Delivery
Technological developments are influencing how healthcare systems organize services and how physicians deliver patient care. Artificial intelligence, telemedicine, electronic health records, remote patient monitoring, and clinical decision-support systems are increasingly becoming part of modern medical practice.
These technologies may help healthcare professionals manage information, support diagnostic decisions, improve communication, and extend certain services to patients who face difficulties accessing in-person care. However, their effect on long-term physician demand remains uncertain and will depend on how technologies are implemented, regulated, and integrated into clinical workflows.
Medical practice continues to require professional judgment, communication, ethical decision-making, and the ability to assess individual patients within complex clinical circumstances. Medical education must therefore prepare future physicians to use emerging technologies appropriately while maintaining the fundamental clinical competencies required for safe patient care.
What Prospective Medical Students Should Consider
Physician workforce projections provide useful context for individuals considering a career in medicine. They demonstrate the long-term importance of medical professionals and highlight the challenges healthcare systems may face in meeting future patient needs. However, projected shortages should not be interpreted as guarantees of employment, residency placement, or professional licensure.
Prospective medical students should examine the complete educational pathway associated with their intended medical career. Important considerations include the structure and duration of the medical program, the quality of academic and clinical education, exposure to core specialties, examination preparation, residency eligibility, and the requirements for obtaining medical licensure.
Students considering international medical schools should also understand how their qualifications and clinical training arrangements relate to the requirements of their intended postgraduate destination. Making an informed decision requires looking beyond the general demand for physicians and considering the academic, professional, and regulatory steps involved in becoming a practicing doctor.
Looking Ahead
The continuing demand for physicians across the United States reflects long-term demographic, healthcare, and workforce challenges. Population aging, chronic disease, physician retirements, and unequal access to medical services are expected to influence the need for healthcare professionals over the coming decades.
Addressing these challenges will require sustained attention to medical education, postgraduate training, workforce distribution, and the development of healthcare delivery systems. Expanding the physician workforce must also be accompanied by a commitment to maintaining rigorous academic standards, appropriate clinical supervision, and the professional competencies necessary for patient care.
Through its four-year MD program, New Anglia University provides an international medical education pathway combining the Basic Sciences phase in Anguilla with structured, supervised clinical rotations at affiliated hospitals and healthcare settings in the United States and the United Kingdom. The program integrates scientific education with clinical preparation, enabling students to develop the knowledge, practical skills, clinical reasoning, and professional competencies required for further medical training.
Students undertake core clinical rotations and electives across major areas of medicine, gaining supervised patient-facing experience and exposure to different healthcare environments. For those considering postgraduate medical education in the United States, understanding the relevant examination, certification, and residency requirements remains an important part of planning their future medical careers.
As the United States continues to evaluate how best to meet its future healthcare needs, medical education will remain essential to developing a qualified physician workforce capable of responding to changing patient demands. The challenge is not simply to educate more doctors, but to ensure that future physicians receive the preparation, clinical experience, and postgraduate training necessary to contribute effectively to healthcare delivery.
Contact details: info@newanglia.com
Tel: +1 264 498 3768 / +44 (0) 204 553 3768
